(By Justin Sullivan, Getty Images)
NEW YORK (AP) — The government on Tuesday again raised its short-term price forecasts for crude oil and gasoline — trends that are expected to tamp down demand — as oil futures blasted to a record near $123 a barrel.
The Energy Department predicts average monthly gasoline prices should peak at $3.73 a gallon in June, an increase of 13 cents from last month’s estimate. Regular-grade gasoline is expected to average $3.52 a gallon in 2008, 71 cents above last year’s average.
Diesel fuel prices are projected to average $3.94 a gallon this year, up from $2.88 a gallon in 2007.
At the pump, meanwhile, the national average price of a gallon of regular gas slipped 0.1 cents overnight to $3.611, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Analysts are split over how high gas will go; while prices have slipped since May 1, leading some analysts to say gas is close to peaking, others predict the fuel will follow oil’s upward surge.
“You’re going to see new highs for gas prices, probably for the weekend,” said James Cordier, president of Tampa, trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com, who predicts an average price of $4 a gallon in the coming weeks.
6. May 2008 at 8:12 pm
according to this:
http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/statistics/gasoline_per_capita.html
Americans consume about 464 gallons of gasoline per year. that means the difference between $3 gas and $4 gas is $464 a year. That’s really not much, people are WAY overreacting when they go out and buy a $5000 scooter to “save gas money.”
6. May 2008 at 9:15 pm
So… They are saying your average American only travels 12000 miles a year and consumes just 464 gallons of gas? (assuming around 25 mpg).
If they travel 12000 miles on a scooter they would only consume on 200 gallons of gas (assuming 60 mpg). That’s less than half the amount (see: saving resources).
So, 464 gallons at $4/gal = $1,856 a year in the 25mpg car.
200 gallons at $4/gal = $800 a year in the 60mpg scooter.
We won’t go into maintenance cost differences right now. So, we’ve got a savings of just over $1,000 a year. Does that pay for our $5k scooter? No. How about when gas is $5/gal? $2,320 vs. $1,000 or a savings of $1,320. So on and so forth. Still, it would take nearly 4 years at a sustained $5/gal price to pay off the scoot with your gas savings.
Of course, the savings is more pronounced if you are riding a 13mpg vehicle and move to a 60mpg Scooter. It’s $3692 to fill up your F150 or BMW 325i and still just $800 to fill the scoot. A savings of $2892 (assuming you don’t need to use premium or diesel). We’ve beat the half-way point on our scooter in just 1 year.
Another benefit to scooters is that you usually have no trouble finding parking… and a benefit to having a car is that you can’t make-out in a scooter like you can in a car… unless you drive a SMART car, then it’s pretty close.
7. May 2008 at 12:11 pm
That all sounds great except how many people put 12K miles a year on their scooter? I’ve been on modern buddy for a while, someone just posted they hit 20K after a year and a half and most of the list stood in awe. And he had to replace his engine once. Another guy did 11000 in a year, but these are the exceptions, not the rules. For reference, Alix B rode 11,000 miles last year on her P.E.A.C.E. ride, she just rolled over to 12,000 as she started this years’ ride.
And if you’re running a scooter 12,000 miles a year, you can’t ignore the maintenance costs, modern Vespas burn through rear tires in 2000 miles, and the service interval is also 2000 miles, which means a $60 tire (plus install) and $100+ oil change six times a year. That’s over $1000 right there, not including any major service (valve adjustments, brake work) that would be likely to be necessary in 12,000 miles of riding.
7. May 2008 at 2:54 pm
Who pays $100 for an oil change on their scooter?
7. May 2008 at 3:53 pm
I agree, scooter tires are more expensive than car tires ($250×4 that is rated for 48k miles on a car and $65×2 for a tire that lasts less than 3000 miles).
I don’t think scooters are necessarily a good fit as a replacement for your primary vehicle. Scooters fit BEST in households considering a second car. That’s how I landed on one. I was getting cabin fever when I worked from home while the wife shuttled the kids in the car.
For a second vehicle you could consider a nice used car like a 2003 BMW 325i that’ll run you about $19,240 or like I did, a nice used Honda Helix for $2300. The maintenance on the two vehicles averages about the same over the course of a year (about $1500), but a years worth of premium in the BMW is $2,232. The Helix would be about $744 in premium over a year at today’s prices of around $3.72/gal.
It wasn’t nearly as stylish, but the saving potential (vehicle cost & gas) was about $18,000 over the course of a year (assuming you paid them both off in that time period).
I don’t need a BMW 325i to get me around town by myself. If it’s too sloppy out, I take the car… If I need to drag the kids to the park or get groceries, I take the car. If we’re going to the beach, I take the car. Outside of that it’s me and the open road, weaving around traffic and parking front and center just about anywhere in town. Sometimes on the sidewalk. Eighteen thousand dollars happier.
8. May 2008 at 2:10 pm
I don’t know. The cost savings versus car can get kind of muddled. Up in Wisconsin having a car/truck for winter is required but I ride my bike as much as possible weather permitting.
However I only put over 6,000 miles a year on my Honda Reflex and currently have 12,000 plus miles on it.
The bike itself was $5k OTD
Both front and rear tires lasted for 12k miles and I just replaced them both for $200 installed.
I don’t do any maintenance myself and the service intervals are every 4000 miles.
600 mile check up was negotiated into purchase.
at 4K my service department charged $45
at 8k the charge was $100 (approx)
at 12k it was $230
My insurance is $80/yr.
I get 70 mpg consistently so at an average of $3.75 I’ve spent about $643.
I should also add that I purchased three helmets, three sets of gloves, two jackets, a set of armor and two neck warmers for a total of roughly $596.
My total cost of ownership for two years is $6974.
I could buy a lot of gas with that money. Definitely more than I would use in two years (my car gets 28-32mpg). But I love my bike and it is my preferred transportation.
Also the bike isn’t purely utilitarian. I go on many fun rides that burn fuel for no other reason than my own selfish enjoyment. I simply do not view my scooter as cost saving measure but I do love the fuel efficiency.
- wisart
8. May 2008 at 4:41 pm
For a purely financial viewpoint, a big cost factor for city dwellers is parking. Car parking costs approximately $200/month adjacent my office building. The CTA monthly pass is $80. So, by riding my scooter and parking for free (I have my secret spots) I save at a minimum $80 a month, plus I get the convenience of not having to use the crappy El and save about an hour off or my commute each way. At about 2 years I felt I had easily made up for the cost and maintenance of my scooter (Zuma, $2200 OTD).
8. May 2008 at 5:02 pm
Sweet! I forgot about parking costs… I don’t get out much.
Thanks for the input!